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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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