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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.